Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
