Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
